Introduction
On November 28, 2025, the High-Class Pack MEGA Dream ex was released in Japan.
As someone living in Japan, I personally tracked everything—from pre-release reservation prices, to store conditions on release day, pull-rate tendencies, and the initial market reaction.
This release day turned out to be very different from what many expected, with several uniquely “Japanese movements” that I felt were important to share with collectors and investors overseas.
This report explains not only what happened, but also why it happened.
1. What Actually Happened in Japan on Release Day
I visited many stores from early morning, and the first major surprise was this:
Most large retailers did NOT sell MEGA Dream ex BOXES on release day.
Only pre-order pickup was available, and general customers could only buy a few booster packs.
Another unexpected moment was this:
TeraStellar Festival ex sold out before MEGA Dream ex.
This was mainly due to the rising demand for singles like:
- Blacky (Umbreon) ex
- Sylveon ex
- Espeon ex
These cards have strong collector appeal right now, and their popularity influenced purchasing behavior.
Convenience stores showed a similar situation:
Many stores received zero stock, and those who managed to buy even 5 packs were considered “very lucky.”
2. Pull-Rate Tendencies and Community Reaction
By analyzing data from X (Twitter), YouTubers, individual breakers, and overseas openers, a pattern appeared:
- Pulls were generally weaker than expected
- Sub-Rare counts varied significantly
- Weight-based “easier hits” tests suddenly gained attention
(not conclusive, but widely discussed)
As a result:
Stronger cards began rising in single prices immediately.
This is a typical pattern in Japan—when opening feels difficult, singles strengthen.
3. Market Data (BOX, Dragonite MUR, Gengar SAR)
◆ MEGA Dream ex BOX
- Pre-release: ¥17,300 ($110)
- Release Day: ¥13,000 ($82)
- Now: ¥11,700 ($74)
- Retail Price: ¥5,500
- Next major supply: Additional lottery winners → ships late January 2026
Analysis:
The current ¥11,700 is still a “high zone,” meaning a short-term dip is possible.
However, due to:
- Holiday season demand
- Decreasing listings
- No major resupply until late January
the market has strong support and is unlikely to crash sharply.
◆Mega Dragonite ex MUR (250/193)
- Pre-release: ¥160,000 ($1,026)
- Release Day: ¥120,000 ($770)
- Now: ¥67,000 ($429)
Analysis:
The sharp initial drop was expected.
Because trading volume is extremely low, its scarcity is overpowering its price pressure.
The bottom appears solid—this is a strong rebound candidate.
◆ Mega Gengar ex SAR
- Pre-release: ¥75,000 ($480)
- Release Day: ¥70,000 ($448)
- Now: ¥62,000 (397$)
Analysis:
This is a classic “hard-to-pull = strong price” SAR.
It responds quickly and cleanly to market demand, and further price appreciation in the short term is very possible.
4. Additional Lottery Supply (Late January) and PSA Inflow
MEGA Dream ex had additional lottery winners from Nov 20–25, whose products will arrive in late January 2026.
This will be the next major supply wave.
Before that, the market may experience temporary “low inventory,” which keeps prices from dropping.
PSA-graded cards will likely return around mid-December:
- PSA10 supply increases → singles temporarily soften
- BOX prices → almost no impact
Historically in Japan, BOX demand tends to rise after PSA populations stabilize.
5. MA (Mega Attack Rare) and Overseas Demand
In Japan, MA cards are often seen as “for resellers,” not as collection pieces.
However, overseas collectors highly value them because of:
- Japanese text
- Metallic finish
- Strong visual impact
So overseas demand is much stronger than domestic demand.
In addition, unlike TeraStellar Festival ex, MEGA Dream ex does not have a unified “PSA10 matching set” concept.
This is why:
More people prefer to keep the entire BOX sealed for collection.
6. Market Outlook (Using Chart-Based Analysis)
When viewed like a financial chart:
- Pre-release peak
- Sharp drop on release day
- Price stabilizes within 48 hours
- Gradual rebound begins
- No major supply until late January → strong support
- Dragonite MUR: Extremely low volume → scarcity wins
- Gengar SAR: Clean, healthy strength due to high difficulty
- BOX: Low risk in the midterm → predictable movement
Overall, the chart suggests bottoming out and a gentle rebound, not a crash.
7. My Personal Perspective (As a Seller and a Collector)
People sometimes assume I “sell mainly to investors,” but the truth is the opposite.
I started with AR cards, simply because I loved the artwork.
At one time, I personally owned two-thirds of all AR cards.
As I spoke with more international collectors, I began learning their stories—childhood memories, their favorite eras, and the emotional reasons behind their collections.
That experience changed how I saw Pokémon:
the way people enjoy Pokémon truly differs across the world.
Today, we serve customers across Europe and many other regions.
Sometimes they ask for rare cards or affordable singles; sometimes they ask for Japanese snacks, One Piece cards, or even gaming items.
Some collectors have even traveled to Japan and met us in person.
Investors and collectors are both “right.”
There is no single correct way to enjoy Pokémon.
My goal is simple:
To help people find the right timing, and to help them find the card that truly matters to them.
If you ever want to source Japanese cards—whether a single card or a large order—feel free to message us.
We always respond carefully and personally.
Instagram: @pokeshopjp
WhatsApp: contact
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