— But When You Stand on the Ground, the View Is Slightly Different —

Looking at the Numbers, the Japanese Pokémon Card Market Seems Healthy

Let’s start by looking at recent trends in the Japanese Pokémon card market through flea-market price charts.

• September 26, 2025: Expansion Pack Inferno X
• November 28, 2025: High-Class Pack Mega Dream ex
• January 23, 2026: New Expansion Munykis Zero

When these release timings are layered onto the chart,
the average price trend shows a steady upward movement overall.

Each new release triggers a reaction in the market, and many people conclude:

• “The Japanese market is still active.”
• “There’s still strong momentum.”

Judging purely by the numbers, that assessment isn’t wrong.

However, the “Human Movement” Behind the Prices Tells a Different Story

Now let’s change perspective slightly.

These charts don’t only show prices — they also show transaction volume,
in other words, how many actual trades are happening.

This is where a subtle inconsistency appears.

• Right after Inferno X launched, both prices and transactions surged briefly
• After that, prices held steady, but trading volume gradually cooled
• Even after Mega Dream ex and Munykis Zero,
  prices continued rising while transaction volume remained relatively low

In simple terms, the current Japanese market looks like this:

Prices are high, but the market itself isn’t moving much.

This is something that’s difficult to grasp by numbers alone.

What I Feel on the Ground: “It’s Busy, But the Excitement Has Faded”

I live close to Pokémon Centers and multiple card shops,
and I visit them regularly watching price changes,
BOX and pack availability, reservation trends, and customer behavior in real time.

What has stood out to me recently is this:

The sense of excitement has clearly declined compared to before.

Emotions don’t appear on charts or spreadsheets,
but when you’re physically present, the change in atmosphere is unmistakable.

Pokémon Centers Are Still Crowded But in a Different Way

Pokémon Centers are still packed with tourists, especially on weekends.
However, the nature of that crowd has changed.

When Munykis Zero launched in January 2026,
the release day attracted many people who wanted to
“see something new” or “try opening a few packs.”

But that excitement didn’t last long.
Just a few days later, customer activity visibly slowed.

---

An Honest Surprise Inside Card Shops

Visiting card shops brought a different kind of surprise.

On the first day of Munykis Zero,
Mega Zygarde ex (MUR, gold) was already displayed in showcases,
and AR cards were selling for around ¥600 (about $4).

My honest reaction was:

“Wait… already this cheap?”

Even if you understand market logic,
seeing those prices in person instantly pulls you back to reality lowering expectations and dampening the emotional thrill.

---

“You Can Easily Buy Boxes at MSRP in Japan” Is No Longer True

Many people still assume:

“If you’re in Japan, you can just buy BOXes and packs at retail price, right?”

Unfortunately, that’s no longer the case.

Past issues such as:

• Scalping
• Shrink-wrap tampering
• Searched packs

combined with online misinformation,
have pushed Japanese retailers to adopt strict countermeasures.

Today, it’s common to see:

• No BOX sales at all
• Shrink wrap removed immediately after purchase
• Pack-only sales with strict quantity limits

Shrink-wrapped BOXes do still exist, but they are far less common than before.

Even Individual Packs Have Become Competitive

“So then just buy packs at convenience stores or card shops?”

In reality, even packs are difficult to secure.

When packs arrive:

• Information spreads instantly on social media
• Stock sells out within hours sometimes minutes

By the time you hear “This store had some,”
they’re usually already gone.

Relying on past restock information is, frankly, not recommended.

Has Pokémon Lost Popularity? Not Exactly.

So, has Pokémon become unpopular?

I don’t believe so.

More accurately:

Short- and mid-term investment buyers have decreased.

That’s all.

True Pokémon fans are shifting their focus away from chasing only new releases,
and back toward vintage cards and older formats.

With Pokémon’s 30th anniversary approaching,
commemorative cards like future McDonald’s promos
could easily shift the market again in a different way.

Meanwhile, One Piece and Dragon Ball Are Clearly Heating Up

On the other hand,
Bandai’s One Piece and Dragon Ball card games are extremely strong right now.

Until late 2024, the situation was often:

• Plenty of buy-ins
• But slow retail movement

Now, the trend has flipped.

• Promo cards
• Special sets
• Limited items

are moving very actively.

More card shops are dedicating entire sections
to One Piece and Dragon Ball for international customers,
and online reservations often sell out instantly.

This mirrors Pokémon’s earlier phases almost perfectly.

It’s Not a “Switch” It’s an Expansion of Interest

This doesn’t mean people are abandoning Pokémon.

Rather:

Pokémon fans are expanding their interests
into One Piece and Dragon Ball.

That overlap is growing steadily and that’s the real atmosphere of today’s Japanese market.

So, What Should International Visitors Buy in Japan?

First, an important reminder:

You should always buy what you genuinely like.

That said, many visitors come to Japan hoping to buy
new Pokémon BOXes or packs at Pokémon Centers or electronics stores.

The reality is: it’s hard to do so.

Even Japanese buyers who understand the system
and visit multiple stores strategically struggle.
For short-term visitors, spending valuable travel time
hunting packs often leads to frustration rather than enjoyment.

Why I Recommend “Japan-Specific” Cards

So, what does make sense to buy in Japan?

I strongly recommend focusing on:

• Japan-exclusive promo cards
• Vintage cards unique to Japan’s card history

These items capture something you can only get in Japan.

---

Final Thoughts

New expansions like Munykis Zero are still being sold in Japan,
and I personally continue visiting stores,
observing real-world movement and atmosphere daily.

However, there is no single “correct” way to collect.

Rather than chasing trends or prices alone,
ask yourself:

• What truly caught your interest?
• What experience do you want to take home from Japan?

Choosing with that mindset is, in my opinion,
the least regrettable way to enjoy today’s Japanese market.

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