Do you know this card?

From January 23 to March 4, 2026, a special collaboration event between U.S. college basketball and the ONE PIECE Card Game is being held across five American universities, covering a total of 15 games.

All attendees receive a university-specific collaboration poster and an exclusive ONE PIECE promotional card that can only be obtained at this event.

Naturally, this card is not sold in Japan.

Today, I want to talk about the Japanese market.

Why did the price surge first in Japan?

Even before distribution began, pre-orders were already appearing on platforms like eBay at high prices.

However, when you look at the price charts, it becomes clear that the market that reacted the fastest and the most aggressively was Japan.

At one point, the card reached nearly 150,000 JPY (around $958).

Why did this happen?

The Japanese market tends to respond strongly not only to supply and future distribution, but also to:

• Hype
• Limited availability
• The fear of not being able to participate

In this case, three factors overlapped:

• An overseas event
• An English-language card
• A limited promotional distribution

When these elements combine, the initial movement in Japan often becomes extreme.

This pattern is not unique to ONE PIECE.
In Pokémon, for example, the “Pikachu at the Museum” promo distributed at the Natural History Museum in London also saw remarkable pre-release and early price spikes.

In Japan, it often feels as though people are buying the story and the moment before they are buying the card itself.

The Japanese market moves on expectations

In Japan, early pricing often reflects concentrated expectations.

Those expectations typically include:

• “It might go higher in the future.”
• “It could become highly valued overseas.”
• “It may become impossible to obtain later.”

This is not about right or wrong it is simply one characteristic of the Japanese market.

As a result, prices sometimes move ahead of the actual fundamentals.

A return to international levels

The current price is around 40,000–50,000 JPY.

Is this a crash?

I don’t necessarily see it that way.

Overseas markets often evaluate differently, placing more emphasis on:

• Playability
• Actual supply volume
• The possibility of reprints or additional distribution

Because of this, international prices tend to be less extreme at the beginning.

From that perspective, it may be more accurate to say that the Japanese price has moved closer to the global benchmark.

Could it fall further?

It is important to clarify that this discussion focuses on the Japanese market.

The promotional event continues until March 4.
As long as supply continues, a sharp short-term rebound may be unlikely.

It is possible that the price could soften further as the hype fully fades.

Of course, this is simply my personal view. The price could also rise again.

---

This card is not “finished”

The speculative phase may have ended for now.

However, the card still carries:

• Collectible value
• Commemorative value
• Event-specific story value

In Japan, there is also a tendency for genuine collectors to enter the market after the initial hype settles.

Some buyers avoid the first wave simply because the initial price is too high. Others prefer to wait and observe.

When they finally decide to buy, the market is often more stable.

This movement is less about investment theory and more about human psychology.

Final thoughts

Everything written here is based on chart observation and my personal experience within the Japanese market.

Not all Japanese collectors behave the same way.

However, for international readers, understanding the Japanese market not as something “irrational,” but as something with its own characteristics, may offer useful perspective.

Sometimes it is not just about the price.

It is about understanding the culture behind the movement.

📩 For Reservations & Inquiries

If you’re interested in this card or sourcing from Japan, feel free to reach out:

Instagram: @pokeshopjp
WhatsApp: Click here
Substack: We share updates and market insights

WhatsApp is the fastest and most reliable way to contact us.

Thank you,
Shinobu 🇯🇵