Looking Back at McDonald’s Pikachu

On August 9, 2025, McDonald’s Japan ran a limited three-day campaign.
Customers who purchased a Happy Meal received a McDonald’s Pikachu promo pack.

From the very beginning, this card became known as one of the most volatile Pokémon promos of the year.
Recently, however, discussion around McDonald’s Pikachu has noticeably cooled down.

That makes now a good time to step back and review:

• how the price moved from release to today
• what was happening in the market at each stage
• and how we might think about its future from here

Release Period (August)

PSA10

In late August, PSA10 prices moved extremely fast.

• Aug 21: ¥22,944 ($153)
• Aug 25: ¥32,076 ($214)

At launch, there was virtually no PSA supply in the market.
Prices were driven by pre-listings and expectations rather than real circulation.

This pattern is common with new releases:
the first PSA10 listings often appear at unusually high prices, sometimes before anyone knows who will actually buy at that level.
Those early prices then become the reference point for the market.

In this case, the theme was exceptionally clear and appealing:
McDonald’s × Pikachu.

At that stage, nobody knew how many PSA10s would eventually enter circulation.
Buying pressure dominated, creating a textbook early hype market.

Single (Raw) Card

• Aug 19: ¥1,971 ($13)
• Aug 26: ¥2,590 ($17)

Singles did not spike as aggressively as PSA10.
Instead, demand came from collectors who simply wanted one copy in hand.

At the same time, sellers on overseas platforms like eBay underestimated demand.
Supply fell behind, leading to widespread order cancellations and negative feedback issues.

September

PSA10

Price movement remained intense:

• Sep 8: ¥31,406 (≈ $209)
• Sep 13: ¥36,678 (≈ $245)
• Sep 30: ¥21,884 (≈ $146)

This was the period when initial PSA results started returning.
As supply increased, the market began to price in future availability.

Speculative buying slowed, and prices shifted down to a lower range.

Single (Raw) Card

• Sep 9: ¥3,561 ($24)
• Sep 30: ¥3,699 ($25)

Interestingly, while PSA10 prices fluctuated sharply, singles continued to rise steadily.

Many buyers felt PSA10 had become too expensive, but singles still looked reasonable.
Real demand supported the price.

October

PSA10

• Oct 17: ¥19,900 ($133)
• Oct 26: ¥14,715 ($98)

October marked a clear downward phase.

As PSA population numbers continued to rise, oversupply expectations were reflected in pricing.
Short-term traders largely exited the market during this period.

Single (Raw) Card

• Oct 7: ¥3,533 ($24)
• Oct 26: ¥2,942 ($20)

Singles also corrected, but far more gradually than PSA10.

During this time, counterfeit McDonald’s Pikachu cards and tampered packs began appearing on eBay.
This uncertainty caused some buyers to step back temporarily.

November

PSA10

• Nov 2: ¥13,038 ($87)
• Nov 16: ¥11,117 ($74)

November appeared to be a price discovery phase.

Prices continued to soften, but there was no panic selling.
The market tone shifted from speculation to evaluation.

Single (Raw) Card

• Nov 9: ¥2,537 (≈ $17)
• Nov 23: ¥2,288 (≈ $15)

Singles followed PSA10 downward, but again avoided any sharp collapse.

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Current Market (December 2025)

PSA10

• Dec 14: ¥8,500 (≈ $57)

Single (Raw) Card

• Dec 14: ¥2,129 (≈ $14)

Compared to launch highs, PSA10 has adjusted significantly.
However, a clear demand zone has formed around ¥7,500–8,500 ($50–57) in Japan.

Buy orders, shop buybacks, and private trades are concentrated in this range.
Short-term flipping has almost completely disappeared.

The current market is supported mainly by:

• domestic collectors
• overseas buyers with a medium-term view
• businesses valuing PSA10 slabs for repack products

This is no longer an emotionally driven market.
It is a role-based market, supported by function and demand.

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What PSA Population Data Tells Us

Current PSA data shows:

• PSA10: ~153,000 copies
• Total graded: ~172,000 copies
• Gem rate: ~88.79%

This clearly indicates that McDonald’s Pikachu is not a scarcity-driven PSA10.

Price appreciation cannot rely on rarity alone.
This reality must be acknowledged objectively.

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Thinking About Future Price Movement

(Singles + PSA10)

Short Term (Next Few Months)

Unless PSA submissions decline sharply, major price swings are unlikely.

• PSA10: ¥7,500–8,500 ($50–57)
• Single cards: around ¥2,100 ($14)

This is a consolidation phase.

Mid Term (1–2 Years)

If buyers increasingly choose well-known, low-risk Pikachu cards, gradual reevaluation is possible.

• PSA10: around ¥13,000 ($87)
• Singles: room to return toward ¥3,000 ($20)

Long Term (Around 3 Years)

Assuming PSA supply growth slows and the market matures:

• PSA10: ¥15,000–17,000 (≈ $100–113)
• Singles: higher and more stable levels than today

“Everyone knows this Pikachu” becomes a stronger advantage over time.

Final Thoughts

Prices have fallen, but this remains a strong card in my view.
Rather than being overly pessimistic, I hope this card is remembered alongside the experience of August 9, 2025 and carried forward into Pokémon’s 30th anniversary in 2026.

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Shinobu🇯🇵