Year-End & New Year’s Pokémon Card Market in Japan What I’m Actually Seeing on the Ground

How is everyone spending the end of the year?
As I’m writing this blog, it’s around 3:00 PM on December 30th (Japan time).

In Japan, this period is often associated with year-end cleaning and last-minute shopping in preparation for the New Year. There is a strong cultural sense of “resetting” before December 31st organizing, clearing things out, and starting the new year with a clean slate.

In this article, I’d like to share what the Japanese trading card market really looks like during the year-end and New Year period, based on what I’m seeing directly on the ground.

The Japanese Card Market During Year-End & New Year

The Japanese card market is often perceived as “inactive” during the year-end holidays.
It’s true that many Japanese companies begin their winter holidays around December 29th.

However, card shops are a different story. Many of them remain open through the end of the year. Typically, December 31st has shortened hours, January 1st is closed, and many shops reopen on January 2nd.

During this time, card shops are surprisingly busy until the final business day of the year. Not only Pokémon, but also newly released booster boxes and packs from before Christmas continue to sell well.
At the same time, foot traffic gradually slows after Christmas, and many shops shift their focus toward preparing and restocking “Lucky Bags” and “Oripa” (random packs).

The Season of Lucky Bags & Oripa

If you visit a card shop in Japan right now, you’ll almost certainly see Oripa.
Oripa are randomly packed trading card products created and sold by card shops or individuals.

For example, you might see an Oripa priced at ¥3,000 (about $19) advertised as “SAR or higher guaranteed,” with no way to see what’s inside. In rare cases, high-end cards like Mega Charizard ex or Meloetta ex SAR may appear — making Oripa feel almost like gambling.

There are many different concepts and styles depending on the shop.
If you manage to pull a high-value card for $19, that’s obviously a great outcome.

That said, from my personal experience, the odds feel lower than opening standard Pokémon packs. Because of that, I tend to look at Oripa calmly and objectively.
Of course, some people do get lucky that’s also a reality.

Pokémon Center During the Holidays

Pokémon Centers become extremely crowded during the year-end and New Year period, especially with international tourists.
As of December 30th, many locations are already sold out of packs and boxes.

If you’re hoping to buy packs, your best chance is to arrive right when the store opens.

Mega Dream ex↑

Start Deck 100↑

Mega Dream ex & Start Deck 100 — Current Situation

Since Pokémon Centers came up, here’s the current situation for Mega Dream ex and Start Deck 100.

As of now, the Japanese market price for Mega Dream ex (BOX) is around ¥9,500 (approximately $60).
This price includes boxes purchased at Pokémon Centers where the shrink wrap is removed, but compared to earlier levels, prices have dropped significantly.

However, physical card shops often list Mega Dream ex boxes around ¥16,000–17,000 ($102–109), creating a noticeable gap between online and in-store prices.

For Start Deck 100, the current market price is around ¥1,500 (about $9.60), which is much lower than before.
With some luck, it may still be possible to buy it at retail price from electronics stores or Pokémon Centers (with purchase limits).

Important Notes: Weight Searching & Re-Shrinking

There are a few important risks to be aware of during this period.

Mega Dream ex

Mega Dream ex has been affected by “weight searching.” Popular cards like Mega Dragonite ex MUR and Mega Gengar ex SAR can sometimes be predicted based on box weight.

In simple terms, heavier or lighter boxes may have different odds.
There are also issues such as re-shrinking, where packs are searched and replaced before being resealed.

Start Deck 100

Start Deck 100 faces similar concerns.
Cards such as Mega Charizard Y ex (MUR version), Pikachu, and Lillie SAR are believed to be more likely in decks of certain weights.

While weight searching may increase odds somewhat, my personal estimate puts accuracy at around 60%.
As a result, Start Deck 100 has been slowing down on platforms like Mercari and eBay, especially for individual sellers.

Market Outlook During the Holidays

Based on current conditions, I believe prices still have room to fall.

Mega Dream ex has already seen reprints, and supply remains relatively high.
Start Deck 100 still attracts interest due to key chase cards, but price expectations and probability concerns are causing buyers to cool off.

During the year-end and New Year period, Japanese market prices may drop another step. If prices become more accessible, popular singles could follow downward. Personally, I think waiting a bit longer is reasonable.

About pokeshopjp

We operate 365 days a year without designated holidays.
However, FedEx shipments are suspended until January 4th, 2026 (EMS is operating normally), so there may be minor shipping delays. Otherwise, operations remain normal.

Hotel Delivery Service for Visitors to Japan

We offer a delivery service for travelers visiting Japan, delivering Pokémon cards and boxes directly to hotels.
We already have experience delivering to hotels in Tokyo, Fukuoka, and Kyoto.

This service is designed for travelers who are unable to find boxes during their trip. Even Japanese residents struggle to buy boxes at retail prices, so we aim to provide a fast, reliable, and fair option.

Those planning to visit Japan
Those currently traveling in Japan

Feel free to contact us if you need assistance.

Final Thoughts

Year-end and New Year periods are often quiet in terms of major news and announcements. Because of that, relying only on visible online information can lead to misunderstandings about the real market atmosphere.

I personally visit Pokémon and One Piece-related locations daily and engage in buying and selling. For me, action itself is information.

Even when the market appears quiet, there are opportunities unique to this time of year.
I’ll continue sharing real-world observations and daily insights on this blog.

If you’re interested in cards or boxes, please contact me using the details below.

From Fukuoka,
Shinobu 🇯🇵

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