Last year, I wrote several articles about the McDonald’s Pikachu promo.

As someone based in Japan, I followed the distribution before release, obtained copies on launch day, and have continuously monitored both the Japanese and overseas market movements. I also shared three structured analyses on Reddit, where I discussed the card with international collectors and investors.

At the time, the market was clearly in a state of frenzy.

Around three months ago, I summarized the situation again. Now the question is simple: where are we today?

Most of you already know that prices have dropped significantly from the peak. So instead of repeating what everyone can see, let’s break it down structurally through price charts and supply data.

1. Current Single Card Price (Japan Market)

Recent trading range:
¥2,780 – ¥3,399($18–$23)

2. Price Structure (Chart Breakdown)

September 2025
Peak: approx. ¥20,000 – ¥23,000($135-$155)
→ Initial bubble phase

October – December 2025
Rapid correction phase
→ ¥10,000($65) → ¥5,000($33) → ¥3,000($20) range

January 2026 – Present
Sideways consolidation
→ Stable between ¥2,500 – ¥3,500($16-$23)

3. Peak-to-Current Decline

If we compare ¥22,000($143) at peak to ¥2,800($18)
(today,the drawdown is approximately -87%.

This is typical behavior of an overheated launch asset.

4. PSA Population Data (Supply Structure)

Total graded copies: 255,607

Breakdown:
PSA 10: 224,830
PSA 9: 22,876
PSA 8: 3,874

Gem rate: 87.96%

A PSA 10 population exceeding 220,000 copies clearly positions this card in a high-supply model, not a scarcity-driven one.

Market Structure: What Phase Are We In?

If we compare this to equity markets, the structure resembles:

IPO-style initial surge
Supply expansion
Price collapse from excess supply
Sideways base formation ← We are here

This is not a scarcity-driven asset.
It behaves more like a “narrative-dependent” collectible.

Fundamentally, pure supply-demand metrics do not support aggressive upside at this stage.

Looking Back at International Reactions

When I discussed this card on Reddit during the peak phase, the responses were interesting.

Common comments included:

I’m holding for 5+ years.
It has cultural value.
McDonald’s × Pikachu is iconic.

Many collectors focused more on the story than short-term speculation.

During the September spike, I wrote that this was not structural growth but short-term overheating. The market eventually cooled, and supply numbers stabilized.

That thesis remains consistent with what we see today.

PSA Supply Shock and Its Absorption

The PSA population expanded explosively.

Under normal conditions, such supply expansion could destroy price stability.

However, the chart now shows:

Sharp drop followed by stabilization
30-day price stability
Decreasing trading volume

The supply shock occurred.
But price destruction did not continue.

This suggests the market has largely absorbed the supply.

What the Current Chart Actually Shows

No new spike
No new collapse
Low volume
Sideways movement

There is no clear bullish catalyst.

But importantly, there is also no visible downward pressure.

Even PSA 10 appears to be stabilizing near its lower range.

This does not resemble a “dead asset.”
It resembles a mature one.

I view this as a structural confirmation phase.

Investment Perspective: What Happens Next?

If I had to summarize the current environment in one phrase:

A quiet market.

Short-term speculators have exited
Long-term holders dominate
Few urgent sellers
Few aggressive buyers

In this phase, prices naturally stagnate.

For prices to fall further, new pressure would be required, such as:

Another massive PSA wave
Reprint announcement
Sudden collapse in overseas demand

At the moment, none of these are visible.

Supply appears largely distributed.
The market has priced it in.
That is why prices have stabilized.

This is my interpretation:

There is no immediate catalyst for a surge.
But there is also no clear catalyst for collapse.

The recent 30-day stability and low volume may indicate seller exhaustion.

Historically, when markets become completely quiet, re-evaluation often begins gradually not explosively.

I am not claiming this is the start of a breakout.
But risk-reward dynamics often improve when fear is highest and attention fades.

Conclusion

I continue to track this card daily.

It is no longer a hype asset.
It is no longer a collapsing asset.

It has entered a mature, balanced phase.

Prices are no longer driven by emotion.
They are driven by supply equilibrium.

I am not a hype-driven influencer.

I always speak from data.
Success is never guaranteed.
But risk can be managed.

Despite extremely high PSA 10 supply, the card has stabilized at current price levels.

It may not deliver explosive growth.

But structurally, it does not behave like a broken asset.

That is my view.

I enjoy discussing Pokémon market structures and investment perspectives.
I will also be writing soon about the Tohoku, Hiroshima, and Fukuoka Special Boxes.

If you have thoughts, questions, or are interested in purchasing, feel free to reach out.

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